There was a thread on politics.ie a few weeks ago floating the idea of a FG/Labour merger. Here’s my thoughts on the matter.

I’d be indifferent, my heart would tell me to go with the idea, my head would tell me to stick with the status quo.

Things to note in favour.

FF are popular, no doubt, but their vote has fluctuated here and there, and are continuously in power because of a divided opposition, whom it can play against one another (note Bertie’s kite flying on FF-Labour scenarios in last weeks Sunday Independent. Now that’s the nature of PR, it lends itself to the creation of small parties, but it has certainly worked in FFs favour. So a bigger, united opposition party could attempt to match FF (and it is clearly not matched at the moment, something pundits fail to note when they talk of the “strength” and “professionalism” of the FF political/media machine). Before a single vote is cast FF have an advantage, such is the nature of incumbency, hefty financial support and having the government/civil service apparatus at your disposal.

Secondly voters in each party seem to have a high regard for one another, despite the occasional back-and-forth banter from users on this site. There has always been a high transfer rate, with or without a pact.

On an issue-by-issue basis there is substantially no difference between them. If anything it is just a difference in emphasis and rhetoric. FG may occasionally portray the latest gangland shooting in hyperbolic tones, but better to highlight crime than to downplay it. Labour too occasionally make its nods to whatever the latest Leftist cause célèbre is at a given time, be it Shannon or Shell or whatever.

Thirdly, each is strong in different areas. Labour in particular has strength in Dublin that is admirable. Ditto FG in Munster, Connacht-Ulster.

It would lead to a more varied, and talented frontbench.

Arguments Against

Much like the whimsical Alliance for the Left idea, it is a wholly unrealistic idea, thought about by bored hacks here, and not by anyone in any position of power in the Dáíl or in the respective parties. Given the current Labour habit of blaming a shift from them to FF in the general election on FG, it most certainly wouldn’t be a popular idea in the Parliamentary Party. It’s a flight of fancy, nothing more.

It might throw a lifeline to the PDs, though I can’t imagine anything will save that ship now.

Most importantly, there is no evidence that they attract people from the same voting pool as such. Each attracts votes from varied enough social classes and the like but their voters aren’t motivated by any closeness, loyalty or otherwise to each other. So FG might lose a wee rump to the PDs and possibly FF, but the real losers would be Labour. Given FG are polling 2.5-3 times as much as Labour, it would be perceived as a takeover. Labours key challenges to it’s support base would be greatly exacerbated by a merger. There is certainly and épater le bourgeois in the Labour Party and they would lose soft, middle class, trendy Guardian readers in places like Dublin South East to the Greens, and would lose a working class base in some communities in Dublin and elsewhere to Sinn Féin and possibly some other micro parties (such is the fetish for schisms in some Left circles). So I think they’d be down a few percent from their current combined total.

All in all, I think at present, I’d concur with the ’sum of the parts is greater than the whole’ theory and FG and Labour should stay separate.

What would be ideal is a more co-ordinated opposition in everything to try and counter FF, Dáil manoeuvres, candidate selection, resources, everything. But given the Greens are in government, SF would likely be hostile, and the Labour Party has a stated preference for an “independent” stance in the hope of an FF-Labour government, even the notion of greater cooperation is unrealistic.

I’ll tell you one context this could be a viable, perhaps a Hobsons choice option. That context is a United Ireland, something that may well happen in my lifetime, but who knows where we’ll be or the lie of the land at that time.